 Being a militia commander is a high-paying occupation in Lebanon, but it's a dangerous one as well. Bashir Gemayel, Tony Franjiye and Danny Shamoun, all heirs to powerful Maronite families, succeeded one another in that position and eventually went the way of all flesh. The Lebanese Druze leader, Walid Junblatt, was saved from that fate, but not his father, Kamal.In the Lebanese context, the death of Akl Hachem, the de facto commander of the militia known as the South Lebanese Army (SLA) and the Israeli-approved acting Maronite representative of a mostly Shi'ite area is another chapter in the bloody tale that has been going on for a quarter of a century since the 1975 civil war. The context, however, like the assassinations of Gemayel and Junblatt (and of various Hezbollah commanders), is not exclusively Lebanese. The assault that killed Hachem is another blow, directly to the head as usual, in the clash between the foreign forces using Lebanon as their arena. Syria's forceful approach to negotiations, both domestic and foreign, is well-known. Hafez Assad quashed the buds of rebellion at home and the seeds of independence in Lebanon without bothering with any correspondence with the attorney general and the state comptroller. In 1974, after its army was repelled on the Golan front, Syria engaged in painful acts of attrition against Israel that eventually earned it Kuneitra and more. A decade later, Assad, via his emissaries, overpowered Ronald Reagan, who capitulated in Lebanon. In the eyes of the Syrians, the fire accompanying a political process does not contradict it, but rather complements it and pushes the rival to move closer to Syrian positions. The overall balance of power between Israel and Syria and the military balance of power between them point to Syrian inferiority in most areas. A computer would translate this inferiority into a Syrian surrender. Assad, as the weak in the east are wont to do, is using the terror option. He is notifying the Lebanese - in the south as well - that Big Brother's reach is long, that he can settle accounts, even if it takes time. He is saying to Ehud Barak, Shepherdstown, Shmepherdstown, the game is not over yet - you outflanked me with your promise to leave Lebanon by July 7 and now I'm outflanking you by forcing Lebanon to stay out of the talks and by striking at the SLA's nerve center so that it collapses now. Barak tried to reduce the equation from six unknown variables to two: instead of Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran, the SLA and Israel, just Syria and Israel. Assad can take care of Iran and Hezbollah, but he will only want to do so at the end of the negotiations and on the way to the end, he is walking - and planting explosive devices - on the brink. In the seven months since the start of "Alternative Medicine," the Air Force's campaign against Lebanese infrastructure targets, the fighting in the south has been according to the "Grapes of Wrath" understandings - a permitted hunting ground for IDF and SLA soldiers, abstention from attacks on Galilee communities. Alternative Medicine's expiration date was just over six months away, not far off according to the Lebanese standard. Military intelligence assessments indicated from the beginning that in these months, it would be more dangerous to be in uniform than to live in Kiryat Shmona. The casualties of the last few days provoked firing at an inopportune time; the situation has not yet changed but, as with the Iraqi missiles fired in 1991, the breaking point is approaching and there the number of casualties wins out over principles and logic. The casualties of the last few days, which are reminiscent of those ostensibly bygone tough times, threaten to sway the balance. Escalation in Lebanon, or directly against Syria, is not desirable for Israel at the moment. It would encourage American bridging, with the bridge more inclined to the Syrian side. Shaul Mofaz began his tenure as chief of staff with the simplistic approach of, "If you've been attacked - charge," preaching about the "value of victory" and reprimanding a paratrooper who did not chase, perhaps into a kidnapping ambush, after an enemy who infiltrated an outpost and then fled from it. Over the months, he has recovered and come to understand that given Israel's current circumstances, victory is measured in knowing when to avoid an unnecessary clash and is also measured in the absence of casualties, which relieves the military command and the political echelon of public pressure. In an ongoing war of attrition, even though the end is visible, every casualty is a loss. When he demonstrated his curve of accomplishments in Lebanon, Mofaz forgot to present the most important one, the one showing a drop in initiated operations. Barak and Mofaz's unified front, present from the moment the talks with Syria were revived, is about to unravel. The chief of staff never signed in on Barak's commitment to get the IDF out of Lebanon - which seems to be, even without an agreement, what may actually push the southern Lebanese and the SLA to help the Syrians, an amulet to encourage the forgiveness of sins. The IDF is concerned about two opposite SLA responses - a revenge shelling that would spark an escalation, and early disarmament. In both cases, the instigator is Assad, and it turns out that Syria controls two links in the chain of operations and responses - Hezbollah and the SLA |